Back to the future: thoughts on Imran Khan, corruption and the Musharaf "boom" years

Fair warning: Long read, potentially rubbish

The following post is based on my observations and interactions with individuals ever since the Musharaf regime ended. They may be some generalizations and perhaps given the narrow sample of people on whose comments a lot of the discussion below is based, the discussion may not neatly fit reality or apply to a majority of people. I am hoping someone would comment on any irregularity or inconsistency with the arguments below for they may have better insight then myself. This is quite a long post, and it may seem abit incomplete at the end, I hope to extend the argument later. 

The rallying cry for Imran Khan is justice. For his supporters and detractors alike, the state of, or the perception of the increase in corruption under the Zardari is ubiquitous.

For a lot of people since 2008, the decline in the national economy is linked with an increase in corruption. But then who is to say corruption did not dominate transactions prior to 2008? Is it that the new, post 9/11 middle class that were able to increase there consumption of consumer goods under the Musharaf regime have suffered the most post 2008?

Easy money

For a lot of people the 2000s saw an increase in wealth and consumption. 2 photocopies of your ID card could get you a car on lease. You could pay Rs. 20,000 to stage a “theft” or “accident” of your car, which on lease was also insured (in the examples I am aware of, peoples cars would mysteriously reappear stripped of anything valuable on Kahuta road in Islamabad/Rawalpindi). Contacts in the bank and/or the insurance company would do their trick. The car would be written off, new car would be presented, everyone’s happy.

Alot of wealth was generated through the development of urban property during the Musharaf era. Advertisements filled newspapers, people lined up outside banks to submit forms, a wink and a nudge and the right “file” could be yours in the morning, and given the rabid speculation by nightfall you could sell of the same “file” for a tidy profit. With some more winks and nudges, people were able to choose ideal plots. The best example I know off are people who bought plots in Bahria Town and DHA Islamabad, who knew people in these organizations or in the primary developer, HRL who knew which plots were allocated on filled in and flattened earth and which plots were on the original surface. Many of the plots in DHA Phase 1, facing the Soan river especially, that were earth filled and flattened out, later sank. Yes, the houses literally sank!

The other example was when CDA launched the sector I-15 plots and apartment ballot and people called friends working in individual banks to get forms submitted and completed on time, while asking them to “go slow” on other peoples applications. Suffice to say, several phone calls were also made to friends fathers who were CDA board members, political figures or high ranking Army officers, surely someone would pay out.

They were people who were importing second hand cars and selling them off. I forget the model of the exact Tayota car which was initially imported with a waived tariff for disabled drivers, which then led to a flood of people getting fake medical reports declaring themselves disabled. They of course then sold off the same car at a premium.

Now the thing is, and I am sure readers of this post from Pakistan would have heard similar stories in one form or the other from the Musharaf years, that all these cases are clearly examples of corruption!

What I find particularly frustrating today is, that the same people who were able to not only enjoy a marked increase in consumption, but also accumulated wealth during this period, are now on the vanguard complaining about corruption under Zardari.

Is it that corruption has increased over the past 45 months as we are made to believe, or is it that the people who enjoyed the benefits of corrupt actions previously no longer can do so or have to pay a higher price to arrive at the same results?

The bubble burst

It doesnt help that the speculative bubble that was the Pakistani property boom, unsurprisingly collapsed. All those multi-billion dollar, in partnership with this and that UAE property developer went down the toilet as the global property boom slumped, and Dubai itself went bankrupt. The highly liquid market of files dried up. Quick money through property and of course the stock market (should have mentioned earlier) came to an end. .

What I suspect is that a lot of people who are unhappy with the current government dont really want justice or an end to corruption. They are looking for a return to the past.

This property boom, egged on in large part by the military run DHA, led to a virtuous cycle, where rising prices fuelled increased development. It was the rule of a military dictator that allowed a lot of the expansion into suburban areas without due and legal process that fuelled this boom. However, people dont view this as corruption, they see this as “nation building”.

The Musharaf era “boom” if you want to call it that, lead to a period of “growth” which appeared highly tangible. People could “see” the progress. They could see the mobile phones in their hands, the many many channels on cable, the TV, Fridge, Refrigerator etc, that had been purchased conveniently in instalments, while a piece of paper declaring future possession of a piece of land, gained in value over weeks and months while sitting ideally. The corruption, the winks and nudges that facilitated this bomb in consumption is viewed as beneficial, thus considered desirable. Even if its genesis is plagued by dubious corrupt actions.

Whether the PPP and Zardari were handed a poor set of cards; highly tangible examples of state failure, electricity, gas, law and order etc, is debatable. People argue that 45 months into government Zardari cant blame Musharaf for today’s problems. Add, the Army, media, judges issues, global economic crisis, rising commodity prices etc to the mix, and even a pretty competent government would have struggled to deal with things.

Corruption of a higher order

So what does this have to do with anti-corruption rhetoric today and Imran Khan? Well for one, I am very sceptical about what exactly we mean by reducing corruption that has plagued us. To me, it appears more an attempt to redistribute the winners and losers. I may be wrong, but for a lot of PTI supporters, the Musharaf regime may be despised for cozying up with America, but the economic “vision” and “progress” of that period is still something that they aspire to.

People are more offended by the corrupt practices of an underpaid, working 12 hours a day young cop who may palm Rs. 1000, but have no qualms picking up the phone to further there cause. This more subtle, sophisticated form of corruption, which is also known as networking or calling in a favour is part and parcel of how the upper middle class functions the world over. These small “benefits” however, translate into long terms financial gains. The few thousands paid to your KESC electrician, policeman or SNGPL gas worker pales in comparisons to the financial gains of those in power.

My contention is that those in power and influence are aspiring for a future that is a rehash of the past. Justice and policies touted to end corruption will not distort their own ability to influence transactions. However, these same policies which hope to end corruption will effect small rent seekers thus reducing the cost of those in power and allow them to get on with their business. Not only do I think that Imran Khan's, PTI's or any political parties rhetoric of ending corruption is a sham, the people who rally for this cause are selective in their application and given that their position in the social hierarchy will remain unchanged. At worst, those below them will be pushed down further and put in their place.

Disappointment

I believe that the political noise which targets corruption is all well and good, and probably in most cases well intentioned. However, the way the PTI especially, has made it what appears a one point, end game of his politics does not address the deep divisions in our society which allow those with greater influence, resources and power to work what ever law, system or circumstance to their benefit. 

To reduce corruption, in word and in spirit, the PTI needs to evolve beyond corruption to actually reduce it. Otherwise, I fear, Imran Khan with all his well intensions is unknowingly doing nothing more than rearranging the winners and losers, to bring back the good times. 

The good times (read: Musharaf rule 2004-2007)? Yes, the time when people (urban, middle class) thought things in Pakistan were on the up, corruption was lower, so that "ideal" state is somehow emulating. After all, if you are aged 20-50, middle class and urban, in the past 30 years, nothing in terms of consumption possibilities beats the Musharaf years. That has captured the imaginations of many as what has been lost since Zardari has come into power.