Getting excited about tomorrow

Perhaps some of you had a chance to watch Astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson on the Daily Show a couple of days ago.

The reason I am posting the video below is to share his enthusiasm and his, what I feel are completely valid arguments regarding the era of space exploration in the 1960s where the US was spurred on by scientific achievement. A nation or indeed the world needs to inspire the young to aim beyond the present.

The past decade has however reduce inspiration to mere survival in Pakistan. Children don't aspire to do greats things as they are not exposed to anything beyond surviving the next crisis, or whatever issue the television demands they divert their attention towards.

On the other end of the spectrum, millions upon millions of children, who have never seen the inside of a school, and have grown up too fast, are preoccupied with surviving as they help support their families. For them, inspiration is too distant, yet that should not absolve us, as a society from encouraging your people for having dreams and at least have a fair shot at achieving them.

Whilst we talk about curriculum changes and getting children in a school, I strongly believe that it is very important to get them excited about opportunities, their talents, creativity and most importantly the future. May it be in science, the arts or social sciences is irrelevant, what we require is a national attitude that encourages everyone to be what they may be at their best and nothing else.

All these notions of discipline, order, straight lines, crisp uniforms and the lack of aspiration are hangovers from the colonial world which administered education as a system of control. We perpetuate that today.

We must get people, who are excited and passionate about what they do and get them face to face with children...you never know how many writers, scientists, poets or artists never get to express their passion amongst the millions who are all together ignored by the state, society and their communities.

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Thoughts on PTI's Energy Policy Vision

So the PTI announced its "Energy Policy Vision" and I for one was keenly looking forward to it. It was perhaps the first opportunity to see some policy rather than just slogans from PTI, something more meaty...constructive if you will.

The language used is highly emotive, which suggests that the document presented isn't a bland policy paper, and is something to rally support behind. They are occasional pot shots at the sitting government, which isn't surprising given the PTI's fierce opposition of the PPP.

So what off the Energy policy itself?

The identification of problems and limitations in the status quo are detailed, but none of them are new or in any way a departure from what other parties, organizations such as the ADB or the WB have previously identified.

The seriousness of any intervention in Pakistan can be judged by the inclusion of the word, "war footing".

100 days

The PTI lists out "Big Bang" Governance Reforms for the first 100 days in power. What is remarkable about the recommendations is how unremarkable they are. Many of the points listed are already being implemented. What I did find interesting was the aim to setup a "Single, empowered energy regulator", which is perhaps the need of the hour, however, given that governments have previously ignored the decisions of NEPRA regarding tariff adjustments, does a populist party like PTI have the political will to implement an independent regulators decisions? That of course we will have to wait and see.

Its under the heading "Solving circular debt" that the recommendations begin to sound impossibly optimistic. 

"Decrease overall transmission and distribution losses from 20% to 10%" - Very optimistic though laudable aim, but no detail is given on how this will be achieved.

"Increase collections from 88% to 95%" - Again, vested interests from the military, state institutions, landlords and industrialists all regularly default on their dues. Will the PTI, with many members and sympathisers from these areas take on these interests?

Apart from that, and perhaps more importantly how does this Energy Policy hope to increase collections from FATA where apparently no one pays their bills? Last I recall dues were in the region of Rs. 30 billion plus. How are collections going to be increased in such cases? The omission of any mention is quite an oversight for me.

"Convert 4.500 MW+ of expensive furnace oil plants to much cheaper imported coal to reduce cost of generation". The problem here is obvious. Why would privately owned GENCO's agree to this after footing the bill to set up furnace oil plants? Who is going to pay for the conversion of these plants and who is going to pay for that? Where will that money come from? While coal may reduce the cost of generation, we cannot ignore the environmental costs of using coal as source of fuel, unless the PTI aims to introduce "clean coal power generators" which for a country like Pakistan, could be prohibitively expensive. The Energy Plan aims to ensure "environmental sustainability", but truly doing so will alter the cost-benefit of switching from furnace oil to coal, which in the long run may not add up to the savings that they hope for.

"Achieve total annual savings of Rs 475 Billion" - From where and how this figure has been estimated should have been detailed. And who is this saving for? The government? The energy producers? The consumers?

In its aim to correct the wrong fuel mix, unsurprisingly Thar Coal has been put forward as a saviour along with hydro electricity. But I am not sure what "Stalled pipeline projects" are relevant to hydro power and the Central Asian based import of electricity is rather odd, given the emphasis and potential of developing local hydro potential. Further, the uncertainty of affairs in Afghanistan and the inability to guarantee infrastructure passing through her, would likely make it a non starter.

When the Energy Plan starts to talk about Financing, things become rather vague and open ended, with none of the points heralding anything new. Quite complicated processes have been reduced to bullet points, with alot of the factors dependent on foreign factors beyond the control off a Pakistani government, regardless of its efficiency or good intentions. First, "Resolve circular debt and deepen domestic banking market" tells us nothing of how exactly the circular debt will be resolved, and how deepening the banking market will help the energy sector, beyond adding to the profits of the already profitable banking sector. Setting up an Infrastructure Development and Finance Institution sounds well and good, but regardless of how well its functions, there is no guarantee that Sovereign Wealth Funds or Foreign investors will be interested to invest. Especially when the relative costs of investments in other countries/regions are falling. Overseas Pakistanis are always touted as a source of investment to solve Pakistan's problems, but there is no detail given on how Overseas Pakistanis investors will aid to solve the energy crisis. Also, setting up such an institution seems in conflict with the previously stated goal of limiting government influence in the energy sector.

The final point states, "Charge losses/subsidies to budget instead of issuing TFCs and mortgaging future generations" sounds well meaning but will end in the same result. First off, subsidies themselves are a very inefficient form targeting the poor. Similarly, its not the poor that cause the losses to begin with. To saddle the taxpayer with the bill in itself should not be an aim. Even so, is placing it on the budget any better than issuing TFCs? Well its a case of jam today, or jam tomorrow, either way, as long as the federal budget runs a deficient the government will half to borrow money. Whether its under the heading "losses and subsidies" or "financing public debt" is about the only difference.

In its efforts to achieve these aims, the PTI aims to challenge the "business as usual" approach of the energy sector. It aims to delegate decision making to processionals, and create an enabling environment to attract the best manpower etc. But given, the quite interventionist policies detailed in the policy proscriptions above, appear to conflict with the aim of allowing greater decision making in the hands of professionals.

I was also surprised that the PTI energy policy did not mention anything about nuclear power, which according to our 2030 vision, is to make quite a sizable contribution. Is that a recognition that our options are limited?

More of the same? 

As I mentioned in the start, the remarkable thing about PTI's energy policy is how unremarkable it is. The prescription doesn't really challenge or differ from any of the other options being floated around. What PTI is essentially claiming is that they are in a better position, than any other stakeholder or political party to actually implement these policies.

Silence on the demand side

What is missing from this energy policy, is perhaps what is missing from all the political parties energy manifestos. They all offer the same goals, cheap electricity available in plentiful amounts.

However, no one seems to pay any attention to the demand side of energy consumption.

What I would like all the political parties to consider as part of their various strategies are measures to actually reduce the consumption of electricity or more accurately, slow the increase in its demand.

We need to focus on changing building codes, so newly constructed homes, offices and factories reduce energy losses, improve insulation and incorporate renewable energy to generate their own power. Government offices, schools, hospitals and large domestics consumers need to be encouraged to adopt efficient energy use, retrofit proper insulation, solar heaters etc. Simple changes in behaviour can add up to alot. For example, just by painting our roofs white, we can reduce our energy consumption, by some estimates by 20%!

Alot of criticism has been placed on our use of imported oil. But on the consumption side, we still have 40 year old trucks populating our roads. Domestically produced cars, pick-ups and vans are still offering engines that are wasteful and inefficient. Our heavily protected auto mobile manufacturers need to face foreign competition, but given their close association with political leaders from across the political spectrum, that is unlikely to happen.

Consumer items, our air-conditioners, televisions, fridges, fans etc, need legislated minimum standards, not only to improve safety but to drive up quality and efficiency. The cheap Chinese imported consumer goods  that have flooded the Pakistani market are extremely wasteful and inefficient.

Our tubewells guzzle energy and extremely inefficient. The USAID is supporting a project to improve their efficiency, improvements along similar lines could help us save alot of energy.

Daylight saving should be implemented. Over the past year, alot of people commented that, "Day light saving is such a hassle and what the big deal? We "only" save around 300MWs!" With such an attitude no wonder we waste so much energy that we don't have to begin with.

There are is no shortage of methods available to help mitigate the rise of energy consumption. However, the absence of any mention to it, was quite surprising from PTIs Energy Policy. However, to be fair, its an aspect that is overlooked by all political parties.

False promises

Perhaps what would be truly revolutionary from a political parties policy recommendations would be the appreciation that electricity isnt going to get cheaper in the long run, that as individual consumers, no one should expect prices to fall and at the end of the day, people should expect to pay for what they consume.

Regardless of the natural resources that Pakistan is endowed with, our goal should not be to just continually add generation capacity to the national grid. We should learn from the experiences of China, our best friend and brotherly counterpart in the community of nations, which much like our eventual aim, generates most of it electricity from coal and has paid a very steep price for it. The environmental and health costs of meeting the energy needs of China have been dire, especially in urban areas. In Pakistan, promising to use our abundant coal reserves to unleash a blitzkrieg of coal powered electricity generation will lead us down the same route.

In short, the PTI Energy Policy statement offers nothing exciting or revolutionary. It reads like a campaign document, and omits elaboration and detail, while including noble, if not overly optimistic aims.

The good thing however is, that almost everybody seems to be making the same suggestions and offering similar solutions. At least we have some across the board consensus here, which hopefully will translate into the political will to actually implement the said proposals.

Charlie Chaplin's Speech in The Great Dictator

Charlie Chaplin's The Great Dictator, released in 1940 satirizes the rise of Hitler and Nazism. Given that Charlie Chaplin was famous for his silent films, this was perhaps his first speaking role on the big screen. One of the most powerful parts of the film is the following speech.

Some 70 years later it remains relevant and sadly so.

Too many of the themes that Chaplin points to are painfully obvious in Pakistan at the moment.

The following is a mash up of the speech over Star Wars and music by Hans Zimmer.

And the original:

Text of the speech:

I’m sorry, but I don’t want to be an emperor. That’s not my business. I don’t want to rule or conquer anyone. I should like to help everyone if possible- Jew, Gentile, black men, white…

We all want to help one another. Human beings are like that. We want to live by each others’ happiness, not by each other’s misery. We don’t want to hate and despise one another. In this world there is room for everyone. And the good earth is rich and can provide for everyone. The way of life can be free and beautiful, but we have lost the way.

Greed has poisoned men’s souls; has barricaded the world with hate; has goose-stepped us into misery and bloodshed. We have developed speed, but we have shut ourselves in. Machinery that gives abundance has left us in want. Our knowledge has made us cynical; our cleverness, hard and unkind.

We think too much and feel too little. More than machinery ,we need humanity. More than cleverness, we need kindness and gentleness. Without these qualities, life will be violent and all will be lost. The aeroplane and the radio have brought us closer together. The very nature of these inventions cries out for the goodness in man; cries out for universal brotherhood; for the unity of us all.

Even now my voice is reaching millions throughout the world, millions of despairing men, women, and little children, victims of a system that makes men torture and imprison innocent people.

To those who can hear me, I say “Do not despair.”

The misery that is now upon us is but the passing of greed, the bitterness of men who fear the way of human progress. The hate of men will pass, and dictators die, and the power they took from the people will return to the people. And so long as men die, liberty will never perish.

Soldiers! Don’t give yourselves to brutes, men who despise you and enslave you; who regiment your lives, tell you what to do, what to think and what to feel! Who drill you, diet you, treat you like cattle, use you as cannon fodder!

Don’t give yourselves to these unnatural men—machine men with machine minds and machine hearts! You are not machines! You are not cattle! You are men! You have a love of humanity in your hearts! You don’t hate!

Only the unloved hate; the unloved and the unnatural.

Soldiers! Don’t fight for slavery! Fight for liberty!

In the seventeenth chapter of St. Luke, it’s written “the kingdom of God is within man”, not one man nor a group of men, but in all men! In you! You, the people, have the power, the power to create machines, the power to create happiness! You, the people, have the power to make this life free and beautiful, to make this life a wonderful adventure. Then in the name of democracy, let us use that power.

Let us all unite.

Let us fight for a new world, a decent world that will give men a chance to work, that will give youth a future and old age a security. By the promise of these things, brutes have risen to power. But they lie! They do not fulfill their promise. They never will!

Dictators free themselves but they enslave the people!

Now let us fight to fulfill that promise! Let us fight to free the world! To do away with national barriers! To do away with greed, with hate and intolerance!

Let us fight for a world of reason, a world where science and progress will lead to all men’s happiness.

Soldiers, in the name of democracy, let us all unite!

Balochistan: See no evil

Polarized at our own peril

As if Pakistan was not polarized enough, the last few months have seen Balochistan and the problems that the people there face, finally receive some much deserved attention. Then again, they are many who argue that yet not enough attention is being given, with reporting selective.

As an example, this polarization was evident as the following clip illustrates, as a political organization, the JI which claims to have the interests of the Baloch people at heart, struggles to share solidarity with the family of victims.

One-liners, easily shared

Many narratives are perpetuated, shared and unquestionably regurgitated. 

1) The Baloch sardars have been exploiting the Baloch masses for decades and now the "liberal" types in Pakistan are hailing them as heroes.

2) There is a foreign hand involved in Balochistan which is hell bent on breaking Pakistan up.

3) Balochistan, nay Pakistan, has been blessed by god with bountiful supplies of natural wealth, which, if not for the foreign hand, exploitative sardars and corrupt politicians, Pakistan could have mined and exploited billions of dollars of mineral wealth.

4) The Army chief has said so: there is no military operation in Balochistan.

5) China has noted that Balochistan is a strategic corridor for it, and therefore, is investing billions to develop mines, ports, airports and roads. We must do whatever to support our brothers from the north.

6) Why are liberals silent about the murder of Punjabi settlers? 

Hear no evil

Now they are some valid claims amongst the above points; they are repeated, shared and justified. However, for the vast majority of people in Pakistan, the claims, grievances or demands of the people of Balochistan are not as well known. We are told what the Baloch think and we assume what is best for them, however the fact is that until very recently, views and opinions of Baloch leaders and activists has been missing from the daily news cycle. In short, we all seem to know why Balochistan is important and why there is violence there, but know little or nothing of the people that we are outraged against. 

An ungoverned void

Further, the issue is muddled as blatant assassinations of the Hazaras has added a sectarian flair to the violence. We cant clearly demarcate between two groups with competing interests.  Extremists terrorist organizations in the mix, justify the killing of these peoples due to their sectarian affiliation. As long as they are people championing such acts and celebrating the perpetrators as heroes, regardless of geography such acts will continue. With no accepted state authority to exercise its sovereignty such acts will continue with impunity. 

Surely, not everyone is a CIA/RAW/Mossad agent. Even if there is foreign interference they are at best exploiting grievances? 

And the list continues. Denial and half truths are a potent mix, yet somewhere in between the denial and emotive nationalism lies the truth.

Who is killing them is what is debated, often vehemently! What riles up people is not that people are dying, but the accusation that the Pakistani security establishment is somehow involved, leads to a proliferation of outrage. How dare someone accuse them of torture and murder?

But then, as if subconsciously and unaware, the narrative tilts to, "so what if they were killed? they were terrorists who got what they deserved".

All caught up

When it comes to Balochistan, we seem to have spun ourselves into a web.

After demanding for decades a plebiscite and the right for self determination for Kashmir, rightly or wrongly, we deny that same rights to the Baloch people. This is explained as clear hypocrisy by the states critics. Islamabad however claims that Balochistan status in the federation is not disputed so this point is not relevant. However, that too has come under alot of debate recently. The worst of this debate, is in the following video, which adds a religious angle to the position of Balochistan in Pakistan. Such propaganda pieces are hardly helpful (warning, graphic content). 

After criticising US/NATO policies in Afghanistan, drone strikes that help create more militants, the night raids that turn communities towards the Taliban, the Pakistani military seems to be doing the same in Balochistan. Now some argue that its not the Pakistani military/intelligence behind these abductions, but if not them, then who? And why is no one looking for who is actually behind these cases? 

Rehman Malik, has repeatedly claimed that there are foreign and/or third hands involved in the militancy in Balochistan. If so, why is this evidence not made public or issue raised internationally? If the government has evidence to corroborate this claim then they should make this public to pile international pressure on such foreign states who are brutalizing Balochistan. If he, the government and security establishment have such evidence, and continue to remain silent, are they not enabling the perpetuation of violence?

Balochistan seems to be in a perfect storm of sorts. They are ruling sardars, and deprived peasantry, geographic importance, mineral wealth, a brutal security state, inept politicians, a sanitized media and jingoistic rhetoric. 

Beyond the point of no return? 

What I fear the most is a wave of emotive nationalism which would actually champion at worst, or remain silent, at best, as violence is justified to keep Balochistan a part of the federation.

A people are judged by how they treat the most vulnerable in their society. What no one can deny is that people are being abducted and they are being killed. There is something very wrong with a people that accepts such violence as part and parcel of maintaining the federation. This in itself should lead to much soul searching. 

If so, that is in clear violation of the law and the constitution and if we stand idly by, then we accept that the state, the law and the courts are not sovereign over its largest province, and all is already lost.

Misplaced priorities in Higher Education

Another day, and it seems history repeats itself.

When we are not discussing some vague educational policy buzzword, namely "uniform education", newspaper articles announce the appointment of new Vice Chancellors or Rectors to various universities across the country.

Apparently, in Pakistan there is a mass shortage of people to run universities. And if your university happens to be affiliated with the military, then most probably, your institution is probably more obsessed with "discipline", dress code and how the sexes can interact with each other.

Today I came across the following post on Insight News - Bahria University

NEWS: Vice Admiral (r) Shahid Iqbal takes charge as new Rector of Bahria University. Sources have informed Insight News that he has already indicated that the rigid rules implemented in the university shall be relaxed for students' convenience, however, the dress code will be imposed strictly by the authorities. "He is a humble and lenient person, " sources said. Iqbal's term will expire in February 2014. [HQ BUREAU]

Now I am sure, the retired Vice Admiral must be a jolly fellow who has served his country admirably over the course of his career, but what exactly is his qualification to run a university and preside over its policy and management? Is his rank in his former profession the only thing that qualifies for his post retirement cushy job?

This whole notion of "rigid rules" for legal adults is preposterous. Learning at university is less and less about what you do in class, and more about your wider experiences, independence, confidence building, building communication skills etc. 

As I commented previously, an 18 year old in Pakistan can join the military, where he or she may be required to kill someone, he or she can drive a car, a motorcycle, marry, hold an arms licence and what not. But god forbid that a 20 year old cloths are "inappropriate" or he/she is sitting too close to a member from the opposite sex. Not too mention that the students are paying consumers.

We see this everywhere from one degree to the other, NUML has had its fair share of controversies where retired Army officers have gone around throwing their weight, beating up lecturers and quite conveniently awarding their own relatives and colleagues degrees and scholarships. NUST is the same, but I believe that they have now relaxed their dress code. In Bahria University last year we had the case of a teacher who dared to question the qualifications of the ex-Naval administrators. Under whose authority, naval intelligence, and serving naval personnel were used to monitor the teachers and students protests is no big secret. The fact that the administrators got away with all this, and the concerned teacher was eventually fired, says alot about what their priorities are.

What I never understand is that, administrators with some affiliation with the military are all focused on rigidity, discipline and conduct when they run schools, colleges or universities, however, they have no qualms about sending their own sons and daughters to private schools and then foreign universities, where there is no "discipline", attendance or dress code. Hypocrisy? 

Perhaps, they have nothing else to offer apart from passing edicts about how students should behave?  

Private universities, who are sometime criticised for being "too modern" or liberal are playing catchup, telling Master level students what to wear and where to sit, while conveniently ignoring the academic product that they are offering. 

Perhaps if the International Islamic University Islamabad was spending less time enforcing gender segregation as their central duty, and placed some trust in their students, they wouldn't have sat idly by, whilst members of their staff sexually harass employees and students. 

For all there wise cracks on how higher education needs to be "disciplined", regimenting university life, in the same fashion as a primary school isn't going to add value to education. We need to really think about the direction in which higher education is moving.

Moralising over the behaviour of students as the primary concern is a pathetic cop out for educational institutions, who then overlook the academic quality they are offering, by selling themselves as disciplined institutions. 

P.S. The following link leads to the Board of Governors of Bahria University - Apparently most of the naval high command moonlights in the university as a second job. http://www.bahria.edu.pk/newSite/home.php?catId=622

The tutoring academy: A quick buck or a necessity?

Malik Hassan Ahmed, posted an interesting question to me on Twitter,

I never went to an academy, my parents never did, do we really need them? Where were they 15-20 years ago? Commercial purposes only?

So I thought that it would probably be best to bring this discussion to the blog so that we can add more detail to it, which is not possible in 140 characters.

My initial response to the question "Commercial purposes only" is to hesitate from drawing a blunt, sharp conclusion.

Perhaps Hassan can detail below what types of tutoring agencies/academies is he talking about? Are they those Rs. 200-500 a month, rote learning, Metric/FSc centres where students face the wall and memorize page after page? Does he refer to the various tutorial agencies which borrow their names from different Greek alphabets? Or is his reference to one on one home tutoring?

As far as the question: "do we really need them"? Individual students learn differently, and a classroom in itself is a very bad place for learning as teachers have to teach to the lowest common denominator, ignoring those that need to be challenged, and the very worst, that need help and support. Tutoring can aid learning due to its focus, and in most cases in an environment where students are more comfortable in.

In Pakistan, however, tutoring academies also perform a social function, where peer pressure comes into play. It becomes an after school hangout, where people meet up due to a lack of alternative activities available.

The relationship between students and teachers is more relaxed in an academy setting which also aids learning, and there is also a lot of evidence to suggest that, especially for teens, the 8 am to 3 pm, school day/timetable is extremely inefficient. In some schools in America and Scandinavia, many of them open up at 10, 10:30 because they believe that a later start is more beneficial. After all the school timetable, is not set to benefit students, it has been created to benefit working parents who can drop of their kids before work. A rigid, structured, period based timetable with classes divided into 45-50 minutes slots is for the benefit of administrators who need to slot teachers around, not students.

After school tutoring functions best when it breaks this rigidity in the system, and is held at a time when learning is more conducive.

Now the flip side to all of this is based on some valid observations.

a) Teachers dumb down lessons in class and want students to attend their academy later:  This is ethically suspect and morally wrong. This questions the professionalism of the teacher involved, and can be argued is bad practise and teaching. However, this is hardly surprising given the pressures and expectations, especially in private  schools, where teacher reputation sucks students in and teachers can face massive class sizes where learning is unpractical. However, to demand students pay to attend lessons after school is inexcusable. 

b) Heaving subject loads: Back around 2003-2004, atleast in Rawalpindi and Islamabad the craze of sitting 12-14 subjects in O levels 8 or 10 A levels began slowly. Now I believe this practise has proliferated. A levels is meant to be focused study of four subjects. That’s how the curriculum is developed and time allocated. Students who have pushed themselves to take extra subjects do themselves no favours and land up in tutoring agencies. Now, you may say that, 'well the student is showing initiative and doing hard work', but there is also a risk that universities will look at a wide range of subjects as a sign of lack of focus. The ability to sit exams and get good marks or grades, does not automatically translate into the ability to excel as academically or later, professionally. These practices have created a large market for tutoring agencies. 

c) Tutoring students you teach: There is also alot of criticism of teachers who tutor their own students and consider such practise bad. But then, if the student is comfortable with that teacher is it then wrong to deny them that option?

Below, I hope to hear from Hassan and then continue in the comments with this discussion. 

Full disclosure: I have been a tutor in Pakistan, both one-on-one and in an academy setting.  

The Islamic university where girls were raped

Today a news article in Dawn revealed the shocking case of female students and staff members forced to offer sexual favours in return for grades and demands of their immediate superiors.

I do not believe that this news is “shocking” because such cases are a rarity. In fact I believe that such cases probably proliferate throughout educational institutions, or indeed in any institution where men are in a position to extract sexual favours. This case is shocking because of the International Islamic University Islamabad’s indifference to these cases and its efforts to cover it up. Further, they have tried to justify their actions by claiming that they hushed up these allegations to protect the parents of female students and the reputation of the institution.

So what exactly has happened?

The report claims that a Professor of Economics traded grades for sexual favours, and threatened female students with failing grades if they did not consent to his demands. Such behaviour is coercive, and as some people on Facebook and Twitter are arguing not consensual sex, instead this is rape by any standard or definition. For a teacher, in his position to exploit his ability to pass or fail students to gain favours is morally and ethically corrupt.

The report further claims that a librarian was forced to resign for allegedly harassing his assistant. The offending Economics professor left IIUI and is now employed at the National Agriculture Research Centre.

The acting President of the IIUI, Sahabzada Sajidur Rehman is quoted as saying,

“We did not approach the police to investigate the allegations as it would have brought bad name to the university and set parents of the 9,500 girls studying here worrying,”

I believe this is a case of criminal negligence on the part of Mr Rehman and the university administration as student welfare, is the primary responsibility of any educational institution.

This also lends itself to another line of argument. Would parents rather have their children’s educational institution hush up such cases so that they need not worry? Who are the administrators to make such assumptions?

Second, there is something very, very wrong in the administrators world view, if they believe that the institutions image would be tarnished if such cases were brought to the police, as compared to the negative effect on their reputation, if they tried to cover it up!

Both individuals, the professor and the librarian have now moved on from IIUI. The teacher has landed a new job at a research council where he potentially may continue with such behaviour. Is IIUI not responsible for informing the competent authorities about the actions of this individual to protect his current co-workers who he may prey upon? Have the IIUI made any effort to insure that no other individuals amongst the staff or administration are suspected of similar behaviour?

From this case, some narratives that are dominant in our society are clearly illustrated. One, the moralizing. While there is no shortage of blogsand videos doing the rounds of LUMS, IBA, BNU etc, female students in “modern and western clothing”, with commentators judging and questioning whether they are good Muslims or not, it seems quite acceptable that a male figure, trading sex for favours, is not only acceptable, but worthy of protection and a cover up.

Second, pressure isn’t placed on the perpetrator, instead its borne by the victim. The victim is pressurised to change her story. Again, in a society that is inclined to frown upon any male and female interaction, somehow its in the “greater good” if the victim states that her actions were consensual and that she was not harassed. Why is that?

I for one hope that this issue does not fade away. Its now the responsibility of the IIUI to not only report these cases to the authorities, but to also make known the actions of these individuals so that they do not repeat these crimes again.

We are often told that our “youth” are vulnerable and immature, and all night texting plans are destroying their futures. An “elder” is required to monitor them, well into their 20s. However, kudos to the University’s Students Welfare Association, who bore pressure on the administration and did not fall silent.

Hopefully, a successful prosecution of the perpetrators will give courage to others who are suffering a similar fate and remain silent because they believe that society judges the victim more harshly than her harasser.

This blog post was originally submitted and published on Tribune Blogs here. 

All hail the Karachi Stock Exchange

The last few weeks has seen the Karachi Stock Exchange nudge upwards. That has predictably led to cautious excitement. Could it be that we are returning to the glorious days of the Musharaf regime, when Pakistanis proudly pointed to KSE as one of the best performing stock markets in the world? 


Well, our Finance Minister threw a bone at the KSE, and its oligopolistic board members by offering concessions in the Capital Gain Tax, that now it can be paid without any need whatsoever for the tax payer to declare his/her source of income. If that wasn't enough, the Finance Minister also withdrew Withholding Tax on brokers commissions. 


The stock market surged after hearing this news, and supposedly we as a nation should be happy and excited that this incompetent government has succumbed to your demands. I say your demands, as according to one Arif Habib, WHT was a double taxation and it was the public demand to remove it. 

Joy!

I mean who says your government doesn't listen to you?


Over the last 10 days people have gotten excited, equating removing CGT with increasing investment, that would lead to economic growth. Such comments and views, usually receive many likes and recommendations. This false economy (literally), within which Pakistan operates has led to a vicious cycle of unsubstantiated economic theorising that neither serves Pakistan, her economy, or indeed the long term goals of those people, advocating for such exemptions.


Strictly speaking, buying shares in the Karachi Stock Exchange is hardly investment. The type of investment, a country like Pakistan should be interested in is one which leads to the accumulation of fixed capital, machinery and job creation. The more illiquid the better. 


Getting all excited over foreign investors placing a few million dollars in the KSE is hardly an achievement. The money comes, earns some fees for local brokers, later those shares are sold and the money is remitted abroad. For all that effort, nothing is actually "produced" or added value or welfare to wider Pakistani society.


While the SECP has successfully lobbied for tax concessions for itself, it seems that the rest of the country doesnt have such luck. Inflation over the past few years has pulled the salaried class into higher tax bands. Rising prices means that consumers pay ever higher amounts of excise duties and GST on their expenditure. By offering concessions to brokers and investors/speculators on the stock market the government has done little more than shift the incidence or burden of taxation squarely on the less well off.


The rich in Pakistan, like any other country in the world, perform very well as tax evaders and avoiders. They control the resources that allows them to influence state policy, transfer their wealth abroad and evade paying taxes within Pakistan. 


However, what is really a kick in the teeth is that they are able to portray concessions to their tax rates, as something in the national interest. Looks like our financial masters have been following the Republican debates quite enthusiastically and have a PA on hand to make notes.


One of the ill effects of the mid 2000s was how people made money out of nothing. People pumped money into NIT, IPO's of state organizations such as PPL and doubled their investment in a matter of weeks. Everyone had a go, queuing up, buying firms, opening brokers outlets. The speculative bubble even sucked in municipal authorities such as the Capital Development Authority who has lost more than half of its investment in various shares on the stock market.


The fact that a tax payer funded organization was able to gamble away public money and no one is held to account is nothing less than criminal negligence. Especially considering the uneven manner in which money has been lavishly spent on some parts of the capital city, while other areas remain in shambles. People have not received compensation for land taken over by the CDA for over 2 decades in some cases, yet the stock market seemed a worthy destination for public resources.


I wonder which brokerage house earned a killing on CDA's share trades?


I for one am not excited by any rise in the KSE, for any stock markets performance is far removed from the real economy. However, over the coming weeks, I am all but certain, that Business Sections in different papers will be full of articles predicting a coming boom or a return to the "good ol days". However, those days were not so good and a boom is followed by a bust. 


However, fear not, no brokerage houses will be harmed.

Energy prices...let them rise

The price of oil has gone up again.


Predictably comments of how this is "democracies revenge" on the hapless people of Pakistan, and how Zardari's corruption means we pay more at the pump.


What is frustrating is the expectation that, "if there is a shortage of gas, alteast it should be cheaper". Every few days, some article or the other comes out where the author writes something along the lines that:


"if it wasnt enough that the people of Pakistan are suffering from electricity and gas shortages, they will be shocked to hear that the prices of the oil and gas are on the rise!"


A good example is the following:


The apathy and indifference of the members of the federal cabinet is evident from the fact that none of them paid any heed to the woes of the people who have been massively burdened with the hike in the prices of petroleum products and the imposition of a 10 percent cess on the compressed natural gas (CNG). Minister of State for Human Resource Development Shaikh Waqas Akram made a point that the increase in POL prices was too much, but no one bothered to discuss or raise the issue and all, including the prime minister, kept mum and the meeting was called off.

For one that is quite judgemental, and the article lacks facts as to what exactly was going on in the meeting. But more to the point, what does "POL prices was too much" mean exactly? What exactly is acceptable increase? And why does everyone believe that its the government responsibility to make prices lower? Who does it benefit? 

Have less therefore cheaper? 


Now it doesn't seem to make any sense to alot of people, but it makes perfect sense to me. If a commodity is increasingly scarce its price will increase. Why does anyone expect it to fall?


The price of oil is determined by international market forces. Not free of course: OPEC tries to influence oil prices by manipulating price. Demand from China is a factor affecting energy prices. And recently, the increasingly aggressive tone between Iran and the US, and the Iranian threat to blockade the Straits of Hormuz, has contributed to rising oil prices. Then there are issues of limited refinery capacity that also contributes to higher prices.


Yes, we can argue that petroleum products are heavily taxed. Should the government lower the tax when oil prices increase to give the masses "relief"?


Spoilt silly


The problem with our consumption behaviour is that oil pricing uptil the end of the Musharaf era spoilt us badly. We became used to cheap petrol and diesel. Both were heavily subsidised.


The subsidy on petrol was plainly criminal. It resulted in a massive transfer of wealth from the have nots, to the haves. During 2002-2007, when banks were offering cars on two photocopies of an ID card and a utility bill, it was the urban, salaried class that benefited. The richer you were, the bigger your car, the more extravagant the use. And it was these people who went around filling there tanks with subsidised petrol. Who footed the bill? The taxpayer, and they continue to do so. The debt that was accumulated during this period to keep energy prices at bay in the lead up to the early 2008 elections, still remain.


The burden of that debt and the inflation that increased government borrowing caused hit the poorest hardest. The costs of inflation are dis-proportionetly felt by those on low incomes. While the well off, those people who had taken out consumer goods, including cars on finance and debt, experienced a decline in real terms, as inflations benefits debtors rather than creditors. Further, a salaried individual is more likely to enjoy annual increments in wages, not equal to, but in line with inflationary expectations. The small man is screwed both ways.


Alot of hot air


History will probably judge our move towards CNG as a major disaster. At most it should have been a source of fuel for public transport to cut down its cost. Again, its criminal to see brand new cars converted to CNG. If you can afford to own a Honda Civic or Toyota Corolla, you can afford to pay for petrol. After a decade of cheap CNG, people dont expect its price to rise. Or when it rises they expect the difference between petrol and gas prices to remain the same. However, that is neither sustainable, nor desirable. Households on low income which cant afford UPS's and Generators, should at least be able to cook and heat there homes. Instead, the CNG Pump Owners lobby not only wants the price to fall and taxes removed, but a reduction in gas load shedding as well. Why should those with the least, have to bear the cost for some guy who can afford to buy his/her own car, but prefers to put gas in it?


Subsidies are generally a bad idea. They encourage over production and/or over consumption. It is also very difficult to make sure that those who the subsidy intends to benefit, actually benefit. Worst off, the economics of energy pricing have been co-opted by political rhetoric.


Every energy price increase is met with accusations of corruption and how democracy has brought us the gift of higher petrol/diesel prices.


The other day I read a comment on the Express Tribune which something something along the lines:


"Even when global oil prices were $142 a barrel, petrol in Pakistan was cheaper than it is now"


Well no surprises there, at that time the Musharaf government maintained the subsidy, by stopping oil prices from rising. It didnt help win him the elections, but it did insure that the new government was setup for failure.


Promises, promises, promises


The worst thing now is for opposition parties to promise lower energy prices. Its high time they all stuffed the rhetoric and say whats needed. Energy prices are going to keep on rising. What they should be focusing on, rather than promising to throw untold, 100s of billions of rupees on subsidies,  is on incentivising energy audits, improved insulation and building design, conservation etc. Car producers in Pakistan, who year on year demand tariffs to protect them from foreign competition, need to spurned towards energy efficient engines and design.


Thar coal, more gas in Baluchistan etc etc, are all mirages offered as possible future solutions. They are no closer to reality than they were a few years ago. No one is going to give us free oil, and its economic suicide to expect the state to foot the bill. Its also corrupt on our part to expect subsidies, the burden of which is borne by those who hardly consumer any of it. The poorest and most vulnerable, must and should be protected from inflationary pressure. However, we need to draw a line somewhere. The guy sitting in his brand new Honda Civic, being interviewed on GEO News on how the government should cut petrol prices doesn't deserve a poor states economic protection.


So gear up for higher prices, and continue to blame corruption, Zardari, democracy, PPP for our ills, just do so while economizing energy use in your surroundings.