The Pakistani people, they matter!

In May 1968 a young Iraqi geologist, Farouk al-Kasim, arrived in Oslo, Norway. Al-Kasim’s youngest son, born with cerebral palsy, could not receive the case he required in Iraq. Along with his Norwegian wife, who het met while studying in the United Kingdom, Al-Kasim arrived in Oslo, with little idea of what lay ahead.

While waiting for a train to his wife’s hometown, Al-Kasim made his way to the Ministry of Industry to ask for a list of oil companies operating in Norway. Instead, his unannounced visit turned into a job interview! At the time, Norways oil administration comprised of just three officials. Foreign petroleum companies were pouring money into North Sea oil exploration, but as yet had not discovered any oil. The Norwegian government was looking for a skilled and experienced individual to give some insight into the massive amount of information pouring into the oil administrator’s office.

A decade earlier the Geological Survey of Norway had declared that there was little chance any oil would ever be discovered. However, while analysing the information available, al-Kasim concluded that the discovery of oil was just a matter of time.

By 1969, several exploration companies had left Norway after failing to make any significant discoveries. However, in December 1969, Philips Petroleum, the last remaining explorer discovered one of the world’s largest oil reserves, the Ekofisk field.

The Norwegian government however, was completely unprepared. They were no plans, policies, regulations and neither a vision for the Norwegian oil industry. It came down to al-Kasim, to prepare a blue print for the future of the Norwegian oil industry. What has followed since is the development of some of the world’s largest oil fields, innovation in oil exploration and extraction technology and the creation of world beating ancillary industries that has allowed Norway to make the most of its oil reserves.

Perhaps most importantly, Norway managed to avoid the infamous “ Dutch disease”, that booming commodity exporters experience. The rest as they say is history.

The knowledge, expertise and skill of an individual and the dedicated support he was offered by his colleagues, allowed Norway to leverage its comparative advantage in the petroleum industry. The mere presence of oil was not the secret behind Norway’s success in building an affluent economy. Instead it was the presence of expertise that allowed it to harness their discoveries true potential.

This is a lesson that we in Pakistan must realise sooner rather than later; that our strength lies in our people, who at present are largely ignored as a useful resource in Pakistan’s development. We risk wasting the advantages of our demographic dividend by failing to make adequate and necessary investments in young people, to support their learning and helping them achieve their individual aspirations.

While we celebrate the presence of the yet unexplored Thar Coal reserves and the possible mineral wealth across Baluchistan etc, the inability to efficiently exploit and commercialise these resources insures our continued underdevelopment. Whether there exploitation is desirable as proposed is also debatable. 

As our population expands, water stress, climate change, the depletion of domestic gas production, desertification etc, will pose challenges that we are unprepared to face. Its only our ability to manage such challenges which will determine whether we are able to leverage a challenge into an opportunity.

The use of what we have, in the best possible way, will allow Pakistan to develop in a manner which is sustainable and does not repeat the mistakes of the past. Anyone following the smog that chokes Beijing at the moment would appreciate the short-sightedness of unplanned electricity generation using coal.

The only resource that we possess in abundance is the expanding numbers of our young people. Investments in education, in schools and colleges, in playgrounds and in teachers must take place now. For only the can deal with many challenges that Pakistan faces. Otherwise at best, the demographic dividend of a young population will be squandered or at worst, the finite natural resources we have will be wasted due to poor decision making.

I have said so before, but it must be repeated. More attention must be given to basic education, especially 

for girls. Investments in good teachers and raising the status of teaching must go hand and hand. The social benefits of basic and primary education are much higher than higher education. While giving importance to Higher Education is all well and good, however unlike the example of Norway above, we in Pakistan don’t only need to make sure we make good decisions at the macro level, but we also must enable individuals to make better decisions. Vocational training must be encouraged on the one hand, but at the same time efforts must be made to insure that it is not considered second tier to academic pursuits.

Without al-Kasim, Norway may have taken a totally different path. Likewise, despite our geographic advantages, natural resources and expertise, without an educated, skilled and aspirational young population, Pakistan too will continue to pay the price for poor decision making.